Curbing
Global Warming
29 November 2004
This week we conclude our mini-series
of articles on climate change with some comments on how we will curb global
warming. There are core principles that form the basis for the allocation
of actions to limit and reduce global emissions. It is according
to these principles that some countries are required to reduce their emissions
while others are at liberty to increase their emissions in a bid to develop.
The principles followed are equity, responsibility and capacity to act.
Equity
The equity principles states
that all, the living and future generations, have equal access to the atmospheric
commons. It implies that those who have already contributed to the
climate change problem, and thus benefited from doing so, need to create
space for others to emit more in the future. The equity is in per
capita terms. Also important is intergenerational equity, stating
that space has to be spared for coming generations. The present generation
would not pass to future generations unfair burdens. Delaying action
on climate change now would transfer large costs to future generations.
Historical Responsibility
The principle of historical
responsibility is closely related to that of equity, and helps in determining
who should act and when. The countries with high standards of living
are mostly responsible for the rise in greenhouse gases. In fact
they created their wealth in part by pumping these gases into the atmosphere.
There is additional burden to countries in early stages of industrialization;
they cannot cut back on burning fossils because these are cheapest, most
convenient and most useful for industry.
If the agricultural zone shifts
or the sea levels rise or rainfall patterns change, it will probably affect
the developing world. These are the countries with few scientific
and economic resources, with no safety nets to cope with disruptions in
climate. There is also rapid population growth in developing countries
that has pushed millions onto marginal land that can change most drastically
due to variations in climate.
Capacity To Act
The capacity of countries
to act is the third principle. It has been noted that the Kyoto Protocol
is not at all perfect but it is the first and right step towards the intended
objective of curbing global warming. The protocol contains some provisions
whose details have not been resolved. There are some flexibility
mechanisms that include emissions trading, joint implementation and the
Clean Development Mechanism, also there is the use of sinks to achieve
emission commitments. These provisions are loop-holed and they have
a potential of bringing all these attempts to nothing. Some other systems
have been proposed but most of these either would not work or could not
be implemented effectively.
Bleak Future
It should be emphasized that
whatever is done now will not prevent the impacts of climate change.
Due to past emissions we are committed to future warming. Even if
emissions can be reduced to zero overnight, which is of course impossible,
still the present concentrations of greenhouse gases will result in an
unavoidable warming of 1oC or above. This therefore means Southern
Africa is facing irreversible consequences of past emissions. With
the situation as is now one can foretell that there will be increased
risk of disease, hunger, water shortage and coastal flooding for somewhere
between tens of millions and some billions of people depending on the impact
area and the rate and extent of the warming.
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